SUZUKA, Japan — For Yuki Tsunoda, the anticipated breakthrough in Formula 1 seemed to be fading away. Red Bull`s full confidence appeared to waver, and even Honda`s backing seemed to diminish.
However, the situation has dramatically shifted. Tsunoda is now poised to make his debut with Red Bull at his home race in Suzuka, marking the arrival of a crucial moment in his career.
Numerous questions arise swiftly. Can he perform at the expected level? Has this opportunity come too late in his journey?
The rapid turnaround since the Chinese Grand Prix – culminating in Tsunoda`s promotion from Racing Bulls, replacing Liam Lawson – is remarkable, even within the fast-paced world of F1. Tsunoda, who for a long time appeared to be just outside the reach of a coveted Red Bull Racing seat, has now been granted this chance. His performance in this role will significantly shape his future career path.
Measuring success when partnered with Max Verstappen is a challenge, yet the benchmark set by his previous teammates is not exceptionally high. Tsunoda`s immediate challenge is straightforward: to master Red Bull`s RB21. This car, like many before it, showcases exceptional speed in the hands of a top-tier driver like Verstappen but can be demanding and difficult for others. It has the potential to undermine driver confidence.
The Unexpected Turnaround for Yuki
Tsunoda`s promotion was fueled by a perception that, contrasting with Lawson`s slow start, the 24-year-old Japanese driver had matured into the complete package Red Bull Racing had long desired.
`Yuki Tsunoda is undeniably quick, but he has experienced inconsistencies,` commented Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko following the promotion announcement. `Initially, we favored Lawson as the stronger candidate, but Yuki has undergone a significant transformation. He changed his management, and considering the circumstances, this emerged as the optimal decision.`
Many observers would argue that Tsunoda`s improvement has been evident for a considerable period, not just in recent weeks of 2025. Yet, this wasn`t the view within Red Bull until recently. As recently as December, the team openly considered parting ways with him.
`We are keenly aware that if we cannot offer Yuki a genuine opportunity this year, it begs the question of whether continuing with him is sensible,` team principal Christian Horner mentioned to media outlets in late 2024, shortly after opting for Lawson. `One cannot remain a reserve driver indefinitely. There comes a point where you must either let them pursue other paths or explore different avenues.`
None present at that event, least of all Horner, anticipated Tsunoda`s elevation from reserve to lead driver so early in the subsequent season. The primary concern regarding Tsunoda, from Horner`s perspective, was his temperament. Apparently, within a few short weeks, this concern has dissipated.
The question remains: how could Tsunoda be deemed unprepared just four months prior, and now be considered ready?
Furthermore, Honda`s role in this development is noteworthy. Recent reports suggested Honda offered a substantial sum to secure Tsunoda`s Red Bull seat. However, sources indicate the incentive was a discount on the final year of their engine partnership—a deal Red Bull reluctantly agreed to after their split with Renault in 2018 and rejections from Ferrari and Mercedes for engine supply—rather than a direct payment.
Despite not being a cash payment, it represents a significant gesture from the manufacturer. This raises another question, considering Red Bull`s substantial payout to Sergio Pérez the previous year—reportedly exceeding $12 million—it seems even more perplexing that Tsunoda`s experience and Honda`s financial support were previously insufficient to convince Horner and his team.
Honda`s stance itself adds another layer of complexity. Their continued support for Tsunoda seemed uncertain until recently, undergoing an even swifter reversal than Red Bull`s. Just weeks prior, a Honda executive appeared to be subtly suggesting Tsunoda look elsewhere.
`He needs to take initiative,` Honda Racing Corporation president Koji Watanabe stated. `I want him to make the best decisions for his own future.`
`We can only provide limited assistance. He must solidify his support structure, including his management, and secure a suitable position. He is a professional. Drivers can`t depend on Honda indefinitely. A driver at Tsunoda`s career stage needs to be self-reliant.`
Considering Tsunoda`s subsequent presence at Honda`s headquarters, marking his debut as a Red Bull Racing driver, these preceding statements now appear strikingly contradictory.
A pivotal figure seems to have been instrumental in this shift. Much attention has been given to his new manager, Diego Menchaca, who he partnered with after parting ways with his previous management. Sources suggest Tsunoda`s former team was perceived as an obstacle to his upward mobility.
His change in management appears to have coincided with a shift in approach and public image. The extent of impact this could have in a few months is debatable, but it`s noteworthy that both Red Bull and Honda have acknowledged it as a contributing factor.
The Pressure is on Tsunoda
Regardless of the circumstances leading to this point, Tsunoda faces a critical opportunity that he must capitalize on. The odds appear to be stacked against him. The RB21 is known to be challenging, and Tsunoda is starting at a disadvantage, having missed pre-season testing and the initial race weekends to familiarize himself with the team and car. Despite the allure of a home debut in Suzuka, he is immediately entering a demanding three-race stretch—Japan, followed by Bahrain, and then Saudi Arabia. A slow start could be detrimental if his confidence wanes under the pressure of a demanding car.
Red Bull`s prior hesitation in promoting Tsunoda had always been somewhat unclear. Identifying the `ups and downs` Marko mentioned, especially in recent seasons, has been difficult for outside observers.
Tsunoda now finds himself alongside Verstappen, widely recognized as a formidable teammate. However, Tsunoda has demonstrated a similar impact on his own teammates. His strong performance contributed to Nyck de Vries`s early departure in 2023. Daniel Ricciardo showed occasional flashes of speed in his place, but the contrast between his form and Tsunoda`s—particularly early last season when the car was competitive in the midfield—was stark. This disparity undermined Red Bull`s idea that Ricciardo was the ideal replacement for Pérez. Tsunoda also outperformed Lawson, although Lawson impressed Red Bull management with promising moments.
Tsunoda`s promotion can be viewed as Red Bull correcting a past oversight. He arguably should have been Verstappen`s teammate from the beginning of 2025. The Japanese driver spent a significant 89 races at the junior team. In comparison, Ricciardo had 39 races in his first stint before promotion, while Sebastian Vettel and Verstappen had 25 and 23 races, respectively. Red Bull has been hesitant to promote its rising stars to the senior team since Verstappen`s own move up in 2016.
For those hoping for Tsunoda`s success, he appears to have been thrown into the deep end.
Sources have indicated that Tsunoda is not necessarily considered a long-term solution at Red Bull. He is seen as a superior immediate option to Lawson, more likely to contribute competitively if Red Bull can resolve the issues with their unpredictable car and contend for the constructors` championship. While this seems ambitious, Red Bull is reportedly placing considerable hope in the upcoming ban on flexible wings set to take effect at the Spanish Grand Prix.
In terms of expectations, Tsunoda simply needs to be competitive, supporting his teammate with consistent results.
`Ultimately, Red Bull Racing`s focus is on Max [Verstappen] securing the drivers` championship,` Tsunoda stated. `He has proven his potential to be a world champion—even though Red Bull currently faces some challenges. Performance-wise, [Horner] wants me to be as close to Max as possible. In certain races, I may assist with strategy, and he assured me that if I were to be ahead of Max, he wouldn`t necessarily ask me to swap positions to ensure Max`s victory.`
Whether Red Bull would adhere to this in reality remains to be seen, but the scenario seems unlikely at present. Given Pérez`s performance gap last year and Lawson`s position at the bottom of timing sheets in his initial races, Red Bull would likely be satisfied with solid results from Tsunoda early on—consistent Q3 appearances and points would be commendable given the circumstances.
Tsunoda now faces broader considerations.
Previously, he seemed to be exploring options elsewhere. Cadillac`s future F1 team reportedly admires his talent, and Haas attempted to recruit him last year before turning to Esteban Ocon when it became clear Tsunoda was bound by his Red Bull contract. While understanding for any initial struggles will likely be present, the risk of this move, given its nature, is that it could undermine the positive perception he has carefully built in recent years within the junior team. The paddock is aware of the Red Bull car`s demanding nature, but it would be a cruel irony if the opportunity Tsunoda has long sought ends up diminishing the goodwill he has earned since entering Formula 1.
Such is the nature of this sport. Previously, Tsunoda had a valid argument that Red Bull had never truly given him a chance to showcase his abilities. That argument is no longer valid. He must now make this opportunity work for him. Examples of drivers like Alex Albon and Pierre Gasly who faced challenges at Red Bull but thrived elsewhere exist. However, Tsunoda`s promotion has added complexity to what already seemed a convoluted and difficult-to-understand career trajectory.
