Aryna Sabalenka has held the No. 1 position in the WTA rankings for over five months and recently surpassed Madison Keys in the Race to the WTA Finals. This year, she has competed in six tournaments, and the upcoming Miami Open final marks her fourth final appearance.
Is there anyone capable of halting Sabalenka`s powerful dominance in women`s tennis?
Jessica Pegula is the next challenger. “Aryna, another final on hard court for us,” Pegula commented after her victory against Alexander Eala. “I consider myself among the top hard-court players, but she might just be the best.”
On the relatively fast courts of Hard Rock Stadium, Sabalenka has been consistently hitting winners, even under pressure. Following her dominant win over Jasmine Paolini, Sabalenka admitted she feels like she is in the zone.
Sabalenka is only the third woman to reach the finals at Indian Wells, Miami, and the Australian Open in the same season as the world`s top-ranked player, following Steffi Graf (1994) and Martina Hingis (2000).
Sabalenka vs. Pegula: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET
Pegula and Sabalenka have faced each other eight times, with Sabalenka winning six of those encounters. What will happen on Saturday? Here`s an analysis for both players:
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Advantage, Sabalenka
Break points are crucial moments in tennis. Against Paolini, Sabalenka was exceptional, saving all four break points against her serve and converting four out of five on Paolini’s serve.
Here’s a key reason why she is difficult to defeat: Serving at 4-2 in the second set, facing a 15-40 deficit against Paolini, Sabalenka responded with three impressive serves, immediately followed by winners into open court. This showcases her aggressive and confident playing style.
Sabalenka has conceded only 23 games in 10 sets, while Pegula has lost 44 games.
Mental toughness, once considered Sabalenka’s weakness, may now be her greatest strength on the WTA Tour.
Pegula won their first match five years ago in Cincinnati. However, Sabalenka has won six of their last seven matches, all in straight sets.
“I think she’s even more formidable now than she was at the US Open,” noted Tennis Channel analyst Martina Navratilova.
Another significant factor is Sabalenka’s current mindset. Despite winning 22 out of 26 matches this year – the most victories on tour – two of her losses were particularly disappointing.
Sabalenka was defeated in two major finals this year: the Australian Open against Madison Keys and Indian Wells against Mirra Andreeva.
“We never truly lose,” Sabalenka told reporters, “we only learn. Sometimes, opponents play with nothing to lose and perform exceptionally. It can be surprising.”
“I believe in those finals, I was focusing too much on my opponents rather than myself.”
Singer Bon Jovi was present for Sabalenka’s semifinal victory. Her ambition in Miami is greater than just `Livin’ On A Prayer.`
“This time,” Sabalenka stated, “I genuinely feel I will perform better than in my previous two finals.”
Advantage, Pegula
Could there be an element of destiny at play?
Pegula, at 31, is the third player over 30 to reach the Miami Open women’s final in recent years. Petra Kvitova (2023) and Danielle Collins (2024) both won the title in their respective years.
Pegula might feel like her time has come.
This is Pegula’s third Miami Open semifinal, having previously lost at this stage to Iga Swiatek (2022) and Elena Rybakina (2023). Even at this point in her career, Pegula continues to achieve breakthroughs. She had lost six major quarterfinals before finally reaching the final at last year’s US Open.
These WTA 1000 events bring out Pegula’s competitive edge. This will be her sixth final at this level. Of her seven career titles, three are at the WTA 1000 level: Guadalajara (2022), Montreal (2023), and Toronto (2024). Winning Miami would mark a WTA 1000 title for her in the fourth consecutive year.
What is it about these major tournaments that elevates her game?
“I’m not entirely sure,” Pegula admitted, “but I’m glad it happens at the 1000s – it’s always positive. In big tournaments, I feel capable of winning crucial matches under pressure. I will aim to bring my best.”
“One of the players who excels even more in these moments might be Aryna on Saturday, so it will be a significant challenge.”
Pegula’s post-match comment, nearing 1 a.m., was `I’m tired.` The good aspect is her excellent physical condition and over 36 hours to recover.
Remarkably, this is Pegula’s third WTA 1000 final since turning 30. Since 2009, only Serena Williams (16) and Li Na (4) have reached more after their 30th birthday. Pegula is performing exceptionally well at an age when many consider retirement. She is determined to capitalize on these opportunities.
She has the potential to become the oldest player to defeat the world No. 1 in a WTA event final since Martina Navratilova in 1993.
“I believe I can bring some different strategies on Saturday,” Pegula stated. “I’m just going to play my game. I know I’ve had opportunities against her in the past, and I’ll do my best to capitalize on them this time.”
