Just like death and taxes, another certainty in life is the rumor mill surrounding Max Verstappen`s teammate and their potential departure from Red Bull Racing.
Liam Lawson`s difficult beginning as a Red Bull driver has sparked speculation about his replacement after merely two races. Following Lawson`s 15th-place finish at the Chinese Grand Prix – which became 12th due to disqualifications ahead – team principal Christian Horner avoided quashing rumors that Lawson might be swapped with Racing Bulls` Yuki Tsunoda before Tsunoda`s home race, the Japanese Grand Prix on April 6.
In Shanghai, Horner stated that everything was speculative, emphasizing they would review the information from the race. He acknowledged Lawson`s potential but admitted they weren`t currently realizing it.
A driver change would be a significant twist for Red Bull’s final race in Japan with Honda power. It would also present a long-awaited opportunity for Tsunoda to finally receive a Red Bull chance that has seemed perpetually out of reach. Furthermore, it would highlight the inconsistent decision-making that has affected almost every Red Bull driver besides Verstappen.
A decision is expected this week.
If a driver swap occurs, Red Bull would effectively be saying that two races were sufficient to judge Lawson, despite previously claiming that 11 race starts were enough to assess his potential last year. Meanwhile, Tsunoda`s four years of experience and consistent performance seemingly weren`t enough – until possibly now. The situation is undeniably perplexing.
Regardless of the final decision, the mere discussion of Lawson`s replacement so early in his tenure, and Red Bull`s lack of immediate denial, is revealing. Even with a challenging start, judging a driver within such a brief period is unwise. This situation continues a pattern for Red Bull Racing, raising questions about how a company known for pioneering the modern Formula 1 driver program finds itself in this predicament again.
Lawson Under Pressure
Though only two races have passed, Lawson appears to be struggling in the deep end Red Bull has thrown him into. His performance has been difficult to watch.
Lawson, and any driver in the second Red Bull seat, faces a triple challenge: Verstappen`s exceptional talent, Red Bull`s increasingly sensitive car (which Verstappen manages to master), and the precedent set by struggling predecessors like Gasly and Albon.
After Daniel Ricciardo`s unexpected 2019 exit, Pierre Gasly and then Alex Albon, both from Red Bull`s junior program, quickly faltered. This led to the hiring of Sergio Pérez, an experienced driver from outside the Red Bull system. Pérez started well but declined in his final years. By last season`s end, jokes about the performance gap between Red Bull`s drivers were common, and these jokes have resurfaced with Lawson`s first two races.
Lawson faced challenges from the start. Preseason testing issues limited his track time, and his debut was at Albert Park, a track unfamiliar to him. China was simply a weekend where he couldn`t find his rhythm, a common experience for young drivers in new teams. These aren`t excuses, as many drivers would desire Lawson`s opportunity, but they are factors impacting his start.
Public perception also plays a role. Lawson hasn`t gained universal support among F1 fans.
Replacing popular drivers Ricciardo and Pérez quickly, Lawson seems to be facing schadenfreude from their fanbases. Lawson simply capitalized on opportunities – Ricciardo`s injury stand-in in 2023 and full-time replacement a year later – but public opinion hasn`t favored him.
Furthermore, by being chosen over Tsunoda, whom many considered more deserving, Lawson is seen by some as an undeserving beneficiary of Red Bull`s questionable driver decisions. Recent statements have likely reinforced this view.
Lawson stated that he outperformed Tsunoda in F3, Euroformula, and New Zealand racing categories. He suggested Tsunoda has had his chance and now it`s his turn in F1.
On-track incidents also contribute. At the U.S. Grand Prix, Fernando Alonso criticized Lawson’s aggressive driving. In Mexico, Lawson aggressively raced Pérez, even making a rude gesture after the race. This defiant style was initially seen as positive, with Horner citing it as a factor in Lawson`s promotion, although he was later privately cautioned for the gesture.
Free Yuki
While Lawson struggled in Shanghai, Helmut Marko praised Tsunoda`s recent progress.
Marko described Tsunoda as being in top form, more mature and with a different approach due to new management. He acknowledged Tsunoda`s development took time but now appears to be effective.
Lawson`s poor start contrasts with Tsunoda`s strong performances. Despite strategic errors by Racing Bulls costing Tsunoda points, he has maintained a consistently high level of performance seen in the past two seasons.
In Formula 1`s unpredictable environment, Red Bull`s continued reluctance to promote Tsunoda to the main team is puzzling. Tsunoda embodies the success Red Bull`s junior program was designed to achieve.
Tsunoda, a fast and exciting young driver, has matured over four years with the secondary team, improving as a teammate and communicator. He addressed past criticisms about his radio outbursts, demonstrating growth and self-awareness.
He is now the most experienced driver in the Racing Bulls team. Lawson, conversely, lacks consistent time with the junior team, having been in and out of a seat. He arguably deserved a full, uninterrupted season with the junior team as much as Tsunoda deserved a promotion.
With Tsunoda`s contract ending this year, promoting him for 2025 would be beneficial. He could either perform well alongside Verstappen, or join the list of Verstappen`s teammates who couldn`t match him. In the latter scenario, Red Bull could confidently move on and consider Lawson or Isack Hadjar, or F2 talent Arvid Lindblad for the future. If Tsunoda succeeds, Red Bull solves their second driver issue for years.
However, the current situation complicates matters. Replacing Lawson now risks damaging his confidence, while Tsunoda would face immediate pressure in a potentially difficult car. These factors will be considered by Horner in making a decision this week. If Red Bull believes Lawson`s struggles are indicative of future performance, they might opt for an unprecedented early driver change, learning from past experiences.
