Real Madrid is often the team you`d back for a magical Champions League comeback, especially at the Santiago Bernabeu. There`s an aura about them on big European nights. As Carlo Ancelotti mentioned after their recent match, “In football, anything can happen. The Bernabeu often witnesses special events.”
While history and home advantage are valuable, overturning a three-goal deficit against arguably Europe`s best defense is an immense task.
Looking at the first leg, did Real Madrid truly appear capable of scoring three goals at the Emirates Stadium? Their nine shots, resulting in a low expected goal (xG) value, suggest otherwise. Early errors from Arsenal`s Jakub Kiwior and Bukayo Saka offered Madrid some opportunities. Jude Bellingham`s skillful play led to Kylian Mbappe`s best chance, but his shot was too close to the goalkeeper. Once Arsenal tightened up their defense after the initial period, Madrid struggled to break through William Saliba and his solid defensive partners.
Arsenal`s defensive strength starts with their excellent defenders. Jurrien Timber effectively contained Vinicius Junior, and Myles Lewis-Skelly compensated for his lack of experience with exceptional anticipation. Rodrygo found little space against them.
Jakub Kiwior, initially seen as a potential weak point in place of Gabriel, demonstrated his talent and resilience. “After the game, I felt really good,” Kiwior said. “You feel great after such a match, but it`s not over. The hardest part is still ahead. I`m staying focused.”
This mentality is shared throughout the Arsenal team. Having moved past their less consistent period, they are now a relentlessly focused team, reflecting their manager`s mission to instill a winning mentality. They are resilient when conceding goals and make it incredibly difficult for opponents to get shots on target. Their defensive structure is impeccable, leading Fulham`s Sander Berge to describe their organization as “remote-controlled.”
Arsenal`s most effective defense is often their possession. They attack strategically, ensuring their defensive setup is in place. They are among the best in the Premier League at preventing counter-attacking opportunities, despite committing players forward in attack.
The last time Arsenal conceded three goals was in December 2023 against Luton. It`s been almost two years since they lost by a three-goal margin, the exact deficit they need to overcome against Madrid to force extra time.
Brentford`s manager, Thomas Frank, acknowledged Arsenal`s defensive solidity after his team struggled to create chances against them. “Looking from the outside, Arsenal work hard,” Frank said. “They`re very strong defensively, especially on set pieces. I believe they will be fine.”
While holding Fulham and Brentford to one goal is commendable, Real Madrid is a different caliber of opponent. However, Madrid`s first-leg performance didn`t immediately show this gap. Now facing a deficit, Madrid will likely adjust their approach. Bellingham might focus less on tracking Odegaard and Saka and more on supporting Mbappe and Vinicius Junior. Rodrygo, who previously supported Valverde defensively, will also need to be more attack-minded. Madrid will likely launch an all-out attack from the start.
Madrid`s talent suggests they could score the needed goals. However, questions arise about how they will cope if Arsenal bypass their press, which has been inconsistent. Opponents often struggle to exploit space against Declan Rice in midfield. His effectiveness was evident in Arsenal`s recent games.
The potential for Saka and Odegaard to exploit open space, or for Vinicius to neglect defensive duties, leaving his teammate exposed, is also a concern for Madrid. Gabriel Martinelli`s threat in open space is another factor Arsenal can leverage.
In their last 10 matches, Real Madrid has only one clean sheet. They have conceded 10 or more shots in 15 of their last 17 games. Across all competitions this season, they`ve allowed over one expected goal per game, rising to 1.4 xG in the Champions League, with their only clean sheet against a weaker Brest side. Injuries have weakened their defense, making them vulnerable.
Although two brilliant free kicks helped Arsenal gain an advantage, they also created more open play chances than Madrid in the first leg. A not fully fit Saka found it relatively easy to attack Madrid`s defense. This was against a Madrid side seemingly focused on keeping the tie close for the home leg.
That strategy backfired significantly. No one in Arsenal is underestimating the return leg in Madrid, but if it weren`t Real Madrid, would anyone expect them to overturn this deficit? Based on the first leg, Madrid`s historical aura might be their strongest asset, but it might not be enough.
