Following a dominant 3-0 victory in the first leg, Arsenal must remain focused as they travel to Madrid for the second leg. Real Madrid, under Carlo Ancelotti, are known for their resilience and will believe they can overturn the deficit, despite being without Eduardo Camavinga.
Real Madrid only managed three shots on target in the first game, while Arsenal`s Declan Rice scored two free-kicks. While repeating that exact scenario might be unlikely, Madrid cannot afford to play with any hesitation. Despite past comebacks from Madrid, Arsenal`s strong defense and determination make this a significant challenge for the Spanish side. Real Madrid`s recent form has been inconsistent, failing to win three of their last five matches across all competitions, putting pressure on their La Liga campaign and Champions League ambitions.
Match Details
- Date: Wednesday, April 16
- Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid, Spain
- Live stream: Paramount+
- Odds: Real Madrid -140; Draw +300; Arsenal +340
First Leg Summary
Real Madrid had early opportunities in the first leg against Arsenal, but momentum shifted after Rice scored a remarkable free kick. Arsenal`s defense effectively neutralized Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior, limiting their clear chances. Rice then added another goal, and Mikel Merino further extended Arsenal`s lead. Camavinga`s red card means he will be absent for Real Madrid in this second leg, adding to the changes expected after their heavy defeat.
Key Matchup
Kylian Mbappe to have 3+ shots on target (+110): This game is crucial for Mbappe`s legacy at Real Madrid. Regardless of the overall outcome, Madrid will expect a strong performance, with Mbappe at the forefront. Signed to elevate Real Madrid in European competitions, Mbappe needs to deliver a defining performance to overcome current attacking imbalances and lead his team to victory.
What`s at Stake
Legacies are on the line. Arsenal are seeking their first Champions League title in their history and are on the verge of overcoming Real Madrid, a powerhouse in the competition. For Arsenal, who have been close to Premier League success under Mikel Arteta, this is a chance to prove their return to the top of European football. Advancing past Real Madrid would establish Arsenal as serious contenders for the title, even with Paris Saint-Germain potentially awaiting them. For Real Madrid and Ancelotti, with speculation surrounding his future, winning consecutive Champions League titles would be the ultimate statement and a high note to potentially end his tenure.
Projected Starting Lineups
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Lucas Vazquez, Raul Asencio, Antonio Rudiger, Francisco Garcia, Aurelien Tchouameni, Fede Valverde, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe
Arsenal: David Raya, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Jakub Kiwior, William Saliba, Jurrien Timber, Mikel Merino, Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard, Bukayo Saka
Player Spotlight
Jakub Kiwior, Arsenal: Gabriel`s injury raised concerns about Arsenal`s defense, but Arteta`s preparation ensured a seamless transition. Kiwior stepped into central defense and performed impressively in the first leg. Repeating that performance at the Santiago Bernabeu is a different challenge. If Kiwior can replicate his first-leg form, Arsenal`s progression is likely, but any slip-up could lead to a tense match.
Key Game Dynamic
Who will score first? The first goal is critical in this match. An early Real Madrid goal could ignite doubts in Arsenal, while an Arsenal goal would require Madrid to score four just to force extra time. Although Champions League comebacks from three goals down have occurred, overcoming a four-goal deficit is unprecedented. Arsenal should be confident that scoring once will be enough to secure their advancement.
Match Prediction
Real Madrid, led by Mbappe, will pressure Arsenal, but scoring three goals against this Arsenal defense is a difficult task. Arsenal`s defensive record this season is strong, and Real Madrid themselves have struggled to keep clean sheets. While Arsenal have historically faltered under pressure, this season feels different, particularly with a healthy Saka and Odegaard. They are expected to secure a crucial result, progressing past Real Madrid despite a potential away defeat.
Prediction: Real Madrid 2, Arsenal 1
