As the Premier League season approaches its conclusion, the top and bottom of the table are largely settled. Liverpool are confirmed as champions, and the three promoted teams from the previous season – Ipswich Town, Leicester City, and Southampton – will be relegated. With these positions determined, attention now turns to the race for qualification for European competitions.
The outcome of Saturday`s FA Cup final, where Crystal Palace unexpectedly defeated Manchester City, significantly impacts the distribution of European spots for the next season.
Here’s a breakdown of the current qualification picture for the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, and Europa Conference League:
Premier League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 36 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 81 | 35 | +46 | 83 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 36 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 66 | 33 | +33 | 68 |
| 3 | Newcastle United | 36 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 68 | 45 | +23 | 66 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 67 | 43 | +24 | 65 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 36 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 62 | 43 | +19 | 63 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 36 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 56 | 49 | +7 | 63 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest | 36 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 56 | 44 | +12 | 62 |
| 8 | Brentford | 36 | 16 | 7 | 13 | 63 | 53 | +10 | 55 |
| 9 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 36 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 59 | 56 | +3 | 55 |
| 10 | AFC Bournemouth | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 55 | 43 | +12 | 53 |
| 11 | Fulham | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 51 | 50 | +1 | 51 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 48 | -2 | 49 |
| 13 | Everton | 36 | 9 | 15 | 12 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 42 |
| 14 | Wolves | 36 | 12 | 5 | 19 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 41 |
| 15 | West Ham | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 59 | -17 | 40 |
| 16 | Manchester United | 36 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 39 |
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 36 | 11 | 5 | 20 | 63 | 59 | +4 | 38 |
| 18 | Ipswich Town | 36 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 35 | 77 | -42 | 22 |
| 19 | Leicester City | 36 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 31 | 78 | -47 | 22 |
| 20 | Southampton | 36 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 82 | -57 | 12 |
General European Qualification Spots
Due to the strong performance of English teams in recent European competitions, England has earned an additional UEFA Champions League spot for next season based on coefficient rankings. This changes the standard allocation.
Here’s the current likely distribution based on league position and cup winners:
- The top five teams in the Premier League qualify for the UEFA Champions League.
- The winner of the Europa League final (between Manchester United and Tottenham) will also qualify for the Champions League.
- The team finishing sixth in the Premier League currently qualifies for the Europa League.
- The team finishing seventh in the Premier League currently qualifies for the Europa Conference League.
Impact of Crystal Palace`s FA Cup Win
Crystal Palace`s victory in the FA Cup final means they automatically secure a place in the Europa League for next season.
Specific Scenarios: What if Chelsea Win the Europa Conference League?
Qualification becomes more complicated depending on whether Chelsea win the Europa Conference League and their final league position.
Scenario A: Chelsea win the Europa Conference League AND finish in the Premier League top five.
- The top five Premier League teams, including Chelsea, qualify for the Champions League, along with the winner of the Europa League final (Manchester United or Tottenham).
- Crystal Palace (as FA Cup winners) and the team finishing sixth in the Premier League qualify for the Europa League.
- Chelsea`s Europa Conference League winner`s spot is not needed as they are already in the Champions League via league position. This spot would then pass down via league position.
Scenario B: Chelsea win the Europa Conference League AND finish sixth in the Premier League.
- The top five Premier League teams qualify for the Champions League, along with the winner of the Europa League final (Manchester United or Tottenham).
- Crystal Palace (as FA Cup winners), Chelsea (as Europa Conference League winners), and the team finishing seventh in the Premier League qualify for the Europa League.
- In this specific scenario, Chelsea winning the ECL from 6th place takes up a cup spot for the Europa League. The league spot they would have occupied (6th) passes down. The Europa Conference League spot (normally for 7th) effectively drops down to the eighth-placed team due to the cascade of teams qualifying higher.
Can the Eighth-Placed Team Qualify?
It is possible for the team finishing eighth in the Premier League to qualify for European competition, but this requires a specific set of results involving cup winners and league positions.
This can primarily happen if:
- Chelsea win the Europa Conference League AND finish outside the Premier League top five (specifically, finish 6th or 7th).
Explanation: As seen in Scenario B, if Chelsea win the Europa Conference League and finish 6th or 7th, they qualify for the Europa League as ECL winners. If their league position (6th or 7th) would also have granted European qualification, that league spot cascades down the table. This cascading effect, combined with the FA Cup winner (Crystal Palace) taking a Europa League spot and the extra Champions League spot for 5th place, can push the Europa Conference League spot down to the team finishing in eighth place.
Based on typical allocation and potential cascades (as referenced from sources like ESPN):
Standard Qualification (with 5th place UCL via coefficient, before Chelsea`s ECL win impact):
- UCL: 1st – 5th + Europa League winners
- EL: 6th place + FA Cup winners (Crystal Palace)
- ECL: 7th place
Scenario: Chelsea win the Europa Conference League and finish 7th:
- UCL: 1st – 5th + Europa League winners
- EL: 6th place + FA Cup winners (Crystal Palace) + Chelsea (as ECL winners)
- ECL: 8th place
This demonstrates how qualification spots can shift based on which teams win domestic and European cups and their final Premier League ranking.
