Is Manchester City`s place in next season`s Champions League truly guaranteed? Ignoring the ongoing legal issues for a moment, their recent uninspired 0-0 draw against Manchester United at Old Trafford is concerning. If they continue to play like this in their remaining matches, teams like Newcastle United and Aston Villa could very well overtake the current champions in the league standings.
While Manchester City typically dominates possession, in this match, without Erling Haaland, they managed only nine shots with a combined expected goals value of just 0.49. This is among their lowest attacking outputs in the Premier League under Pep Guardiola. Unlike previous instances against West Ham (a win) and Arsenal (a loss), this poor performance cannot be easily dismissed as an anomaly or attributed to facing a top-tier opponent. City`s game plan is clearly built around creating scoring opportunities for Haaland, and without him, they seemed lost and lacked direction in attack.
In areas outside the penalty box, City`s established tactical approach still functions effectively. They maintained complete control of territory, evidenced by completing 224 passes in United`s half by halftime, significantly more than United managed in City`s half. The same pattern continued in the final third of the pitch. However, within the penalty area itself, United actually had more touches, 13 to 10, than their visitors.
Despite controlling the game, City lacked a real attacking threat. United made it difficult for them to penetrate the penalty area, effectively deploying a deep 5-4-1 defensive formation, minimizing the space between their defensive line and striker Rasmus Hojlund. However, this type of defensive challenge is not new to City; they have faced similar tactics for almost a decade. They were once known for expertly breaking down such defenses, but more recently, their approach has shifted to overpowering opponents with a physically imposing forward like Haaland.
A team so accustomed to playing through Haaland appeared to lack a clear attacking strategy in his absence. Kevin De Bruyne, in his presumed final season with the club, returned to a more advanced midfield role he previously held before Haaland`s arrival. However, for this to be effective, he needs supporting runners and penalty box threats making runs beyond him. While there were glimpses of dynamism from players, the necessary forward runs into the box from players like Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva, which were more frequent in the past, were less evident.
Phil Foden has been given ample opportunities to prove he can be the consistent goal-scoring threat he was last season. There has been long-standing talk about him stepping up to fill the creative void when De Bruyne departs. Now is the time for him to do so, yet the 24-year-old still seems more comfortable operating on the fringes of the game. Despite being named PFA Player of the Year, his award was somewhat surprising, even considering his productive 2023-24 season. Foden has shown brilliance in moments, but has he consistently influenced the outcome of major games in the way Guardiola needs, as was required on Sunday?
City needed Foden to elevate his game in Haaland`s absence. He had one missed chance early in the second half and little else of significance.
If any spark was to ignite this rather dull match, it was more likely to come from a United player. United undertook the challenging task of launching rapid counter-attacks, often starting deep within their own penalty area and aiming to reach City`s end of the field. They came close to scoring on several occasions, beginning with a free kick just outside the box earned by a solo break from Alejandro Garnacho. With a slightly better connection from the young Argentinian at the far post, Diogo Dalot could have had a well-deserved assist. Patrick Dorgu also came close, and a powerful shot from Joshua Zirkzee in the second half could have broken the deadlock.
At the heart of United`s most promising moments was the exceptional Bruno Fernandes. Attacks gained momentum whenever the ball reached him, with each pass precisely timed to challenge the City defense. He led United in entries into the final third, chances created, and ball recoveries. Across both teams, he was the standout player who seemed most determined to pursue a victory.
Considering City`s current situation, their lack of urgency is surprising. Aston Villa gained points this weekend and are in a strong run of form that few other top-five teams can match. Newcastle has two games in hand, and winning just one would propel them above City in the top five. With Haaland and Rodri in the lineup, there would be little reason to fear the remaining seven games of the season. However, reinforcements are not coming, and if City`s performances remain at this level for the next month and a half, their Champions League qualification could be seriously jeopardized.
