Max Verstappen`s already slim hopes for the championship suffered a major blow at Sunday`s Spanish Grand Prix. Frustration boiled over, leading him to collide with George Russell`s Mercedes. This resulted in a 10-second penalty, dropping him to a 10th-place finish and earning only a single point, despite a podium finish and 15 points having been well within reach.
This outcome leaves the reigning champion 49 points behind championship leader Oscar Piastri and 39 points adrift of Lando Norris in second place in the driver standings. Grilled by the media post-race about his questionable driving, Verstappen seemed eager to sidestep criticism and discuss other topics, including his diminishing championship prospects.
He commented, “If there are any hopes left, we`re simply too slow to compete for the title anyway. I believe that was evident again today.”
Before the Spanish Grand Prix, Red Bull had harbored some hope that stricter front-wing deflection tests might slow McLaren`s momentum. However, the championship leader appeared minimally affected by the technical rule changes, reporting only a performance variation described as “within the noise” of typical track-to-track differences after wing adjustments for compliance.
As expected, Piastri and Norris proved dominant in qualifying at the Circuit de Barcelona Catalunya, going on to secure a comfortable one-two finish in Sunday`s race. Superficially, the championship fight now seems more like a two-horse race than ever before.
However, despite the wave of negative headlines on Sunday, his subsequent contrite Instagram post on Monday, and Red Bull`s challenging car performance throughout the year, it would be exceptionally bold to dismiss Verstappen from the title contest just yet.
Why Verstappen can`t be counted out
Looking back at the first event of F1`s European tripleheader, the situation appeared quite different. In Imola, Verstappen overtook Piastri at the first turn and achieved a decisive victory ahead of both McLarens.
Car updates introduced in Miami and Imola aided Verstappen in finding a better car balance, enabling him to manage his tires more effectively and surpass the McLarens. The performances in Monaco and Spain were significantly less impressive, occurring at tracks that highlighted some persistent Red Bull weaknesses, and in Spain`s case, particularly suited McLaren`s strengths.
McLaren team principal Andrea Stella remarked after his team`s strongest qualifying performance of the season on Saturday, “In a way, I`m a bit surprised we had such a clear advantage [in Spain]. I especially anticipated Red Bull being closer, considering similar track features seen in Suzuka or Imola. But in retrospect, given the extremely high temperatures and the limitations primarily tied to the rear axle for us, I believe our car performs exceptionally well in these conditions.”
Effectively managing overheating rear tires has been a key strength for McLaren this season. This positive characteristic was also apparent in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Miami before Sunday`s Spanish Grand Prix, leading some competitors to suspect the orange cars were utilizing methods potentially outside the regulations.
Consequently, it was perhaps unsurprising that McLaren again held an advantage over Verstappen on Barcelona`s intensely hot and abrasive track surface. Furthermore, the heat, combined with another crucial difference between Spain and Imola, helped shift the advantage even more towards McLaren.
Stella explained, “To be slightly more technical, a characteristic of Spain is its very long corners, unlike Imola`s relatively shorter ones. I believe that in these extended corners, the MCL39 appears to retain some strengths from its predecessor; for example, last year in Zandvoort, another circuit with long corners, Lando dominated the weekend.”
He added, “Therefore, I think we`ve kept some aerodynamic strengths despite having improved the car. Overall, these were beneficial on this type of track; even if the speed range resembles others, the corner length assisted us today.”
Considering McLaren`s intrinsic strengths at Barcelona, Verstappen`s ability to stay relatively close during the race was perhaps unexpected. Theoretically, Red Bull`s three-stop strategy should have been slower than McLaren drivers` more standard two-stop approach. Yet, halfway through, Verstappen was uncomfortably close for the McLaren pit wall.
Stella stated, “He was quick, and when we were on medium tires in the second stint, pushing and managing the pace, he was closing in very rapidly, faster than we anticipated. At one point, we even asked our drivers if they should push harder, and both responded similarly, `I`m not sure I have significantly more pace.`”
He continued, “So at that moment, we were slightly concerned it might be a more contested situation than we initially expected in the first stint. Fortunately, Verstappen began to drop back slightly, Oscar found considerable pace towards the end of the second stint, enabling us to manage the pit stop sequence smoothly.”
However, the safety car that appeared after the final planned pit stops highlighted the risk of Red Bull`s three-stop strategy. Verstappen only had a set of hard tires available when he was called into the pits. While he had one remaining set of soft tires, they had already completed three qualifying laps and four laps to the grid pre-race. This meant they offered minimal benefit over the eight-lap-old softs already on his car.
Red Bull team principal Christian Horner commented on Sunday, “The safety car emerged on lap 54, which was likely the worst timing for our strategy. You`re then presented with the choice: stay out on an eight-lap-old, heavily used soft tire, which would see you overtaken easily at the restart?”
He added, “It seemed there were about 10 racing laps remaining. Regrettably, the only available set of tires after opting for the three-stop strategy was a new set of hards. Our assessment was that new hards were preferable to eight-lap-old, severely degraded softs. So, we made the stop.”
What ensued was Verstappen`s widely reported frustration in the final six laps. However, until that point, the reigning champion had arguably been more competitive against the McLarens than expected, considering the track`s features and high temperatures.
While Verstappen is correct that the performance gap to McLaren in Barcelona would make a title challenge impossible if it persisted throughout the season, luckily for the four-time champion (and fans worldwide), the remaining 15 races will occur at diverse track types.
Upcoming races in Canada, Austria, and Great Britain are expected to suit the Red Bull car better and could feature cooler temperatures, marking them as a critical phase in Verstappen`s championship pursuit.
Furthermore, if the competition between the McLaren drivers stays intense, it could create more chances for Verstappen, as Norris and Piastri will inevitably take points from each other.
Had Verstappen finished third in Spain, he would have lost only three points to Piastri over the three races of the tripleheader, despite McLaren having a clear car advantage at two of those events.
Naturally, losing three points every three races isn`t sufficient for Verstappen to win the championship. However, with the competitive landscape likely shifting between tracks, it demonstrates he could maintain a fighting chance by achieving consistent results.
This is what makes his self-inflicted points loss in Spain particularly frustrating. In addition to the lost championship points, Verstappen will also be in a precarious position for the next two races, being just one penalty point away from a race ban.
While two of the 11 penalty points on his super license will expire at the end of June (one year after his incident with Norris at the Red Bull Ring), in Canada and Austria, any minor infraction could lead to a race suspension, effectively ending his last championship aspirations.
Assuming he avoids penalties, Verstappen would need to average 3.27 more points per race than Piastri and 2.6 more than Norris over the final 15 rounds to clinch the championship. Seen in this light, it`s not an impossible task, but one demanding almost flawless performances for the remainder of the season.
When asked on Sunday evening if the drivers` title was already out of Verstappen`s reach, Horner responded, “Look, there`s a substantial gap now, but there are still a tremendous number of points available. We`re not even halfway through the year. McLaren are in a very strong position, but we never surrender.”
