Following the group stage, the FIFA Club World Cup knockout rounds feature the remaining 16 teams. Despite some unexpected results, the lineup of teams advancing largely aligns with pre-tournament expectations.
While Atletico Madrid`s exit was a surprise (Group B was always tricky with two European giants), and other upsets occurred (like Chelsea losing to Flamengo, or Benfica beating Bayern), only three UEFA sides were eliminated from the group stage. The five wealthiest clubs progressed, joined by Lionel Messi`s team and another capable of signing expensive Spanish veterans.
This tournament doesn`t seem poised for underdog triumphs. The question is: which of the remaining powerhouses is the favorite to win? Here are the surviving 16 teams, ranked by their perceived chances of lifting the Club World Cup trophy. Note that team rankings consider their quality *and* draw difficulty; for example, Inter Miami faces a very tough path. Here we go:
1. Manchester City (+1)
As the only team with a perfect record in the group stage, Manchester City has quickly integrated new players and is carefully managing Rodri`s game time, aiming for him to peak for the new Premier League season. After a dominant 5-2 victory over Juventus, Pep Guardiola praised his team`s performance.
Guardiola noted the team`s commitment and happiness with the win, calling it a reminder of what it feels like `to be a good team`. Given their strong form and a favorable draw, they appear to be the team to beat.
2. Paris Saint-Germain (-1)
There`s very little separating PSG and City; perhaps PSG`s less convincing performance in their loss to Botafogo makes the difference. They seemed to reach their peak by winning the Champions League and might lack the same intense motivation for the Club World Cup, having already achieved a historic first.
3. Real Madrid (–)
Clearly more of a team in transition than the top two, Xabi Alonso`s Real Madrid hasn`t faced a truly challenging opponent yet. Their comfortable win against Salzburg was promising. With Juventus posing little threat based on recent form, Real seems to have a smooth path to the semifinals. The key question is whether their tactical system and strongest lineup will be fully settled by then.
4. Chelsea (+2)
Enzo Maresca`s Chelsea side hasn`t played particularly well and arguably deserved to lose heavily against Flamengo. However, they`ve been fortunate, especially with Andreas Schjelderup`s goal helping Benfica top Bayern Munich. This stroke of luck has placed Chelsea in a much easier section of the draw, although potential matches against Benfica or the Palmeiras/Botafogo winner could be tough tests. They are favorites to reach the semifinal, and from that point, anything is possible.
5. Bayern Munich (-1)
Those skeptical about Bayern`s form at the end of the European season won`t be reassured by their Club World Cup displays. They comfortably beat the team they should have, but struggled against slightly weaker opposition. Their drop in rank might just reflect missed chances, but if they remain wasteful, Flamengo could punish them.
6. Inter (-1)
The intensity of the match between Inter and Boca Juniors highlights a competitiveness often missing in the Club World Cup; for Inter, this competition seems like a chance to redeem themselves after disappointments in Serie A and the Champions League. However, playing numerous high-stakes games could take its toll on Cristian Chivu`s team as the tournament progresses, especially considering they found topping Group E harder than expected.
7. Borussia Dortmund (–)
Borussia Dortmund has benefited from a kind draw, earning a manageable tie against Monterrey after successfully navigating a favorable Group F. Does this good fortune lead to the same outcome as in the 2024 Champions League – being comfortably defeated by Real Madrid regardless of their performance? Likely yes.
8. Benfica (+1)
Like many teams here, Benfica is difficult to fully assess after just three games. Their 2-2 draw needing a comeback against Boca Juniors initially seemed underwhelming, but knowing the strength of South American teams (especially Brazilian), it might look more impressive now. Did they just get lucky against Bayern Munich? Perhaps, but if they defeat Chelsea, their title credentials could be viewed with more seriousness.
9. Fluminense (+7)
In our pre-tournament analysis, we felt Fluminense lacked the attacking flair of other Brazilian sides. We underestimated the strength of their defense, which has allowed only 1.7 expected goals (xG), bettered only by Bayern Munich. They`ve had a kind draw, which might continue with a seemingly tired Inter Milan ahead. Their match could be another opportunity for an upset.
10. Palmeiras (+1)
Given the high expectations for Palmeiras before the tournament, they feel like the least impressive of the four Brazilian teams so far. However, they remain undefeated and have perhaps been unlucky in front of goal. If young talents like Willian Estevao and Vitor Roque find form, they could emerge victorious from what we`re calling `Chelsea`s favorable quadrant`.
11. Botafogo (+13)
After securing the tournament`s biggest upset by beating PSG, Botafogo showed resilience against Atletico Madrid. Maintaining a defeat margin below three goals is tricky, so Fogo relied heavily on goalkeeper John Victor and their impressive defense. A strong defense is key to tournament success, though averaging over two xG against per game is concerning. However, they might not face opposition as tough as their group stage opponents for a while.
12. Juventus (-2)
Juventus experienced a harsh reality check with a 5-2 loss to Manchester City, following convincing wins against Al-Ain and Wydad Casablanca. Manager Igor Tudor made six changes, perhaps mitigating the scale of the defeat, and was reluctant to criticize players who had already secured qualification. Nevertheless, failing to get a draw means facing Real Madrid in the last 16, which likely signifies the end of their tournament run.
13. Flamengo (–)
This ranking feels unfairly low. Flamengo might have been the best Brazilian team in the competition. Jorginho has been outstanding in midfield, and Gonzalo Plata was a breakout star in their win over Chelsea. The issue is that victory sent them into the tougher side of the bracket, likely facing Bayern Munich, PSG, and Real Madrid en route to the final. While Filipe Luis`s side is capable of another upset, three seems unlikely.
14. Monterrey (+8)
Former Guardiola assistant Domenec Torrent has made an immediate positive impact at Monterrey, leading his side to three unbeaten games. They proved stubborn against tougher opponents like Inter and River Plate. They efficiently completed their task against Urawa Red Diamonds with a dominant 4-0 win, eliminating the need to worry about results elsewhere.
15. Al-Hilal (–)
Al-Hilal`s social media post featuring a Kobe Bryant speech after their 2-0 win highlights the Saudi club`s focus heading into the knockout rounds: `Job`s not finished`. Signing Theo Hernandez is another move to bolster Simone Inzaghi`s squad with top talent. Their draw against Real Madrid offers some hope, but their upcoming match against Manchester City, loaded with geopolitical significance, is unlikely to go in their favor.
16. Inter Miami (+2)
While Inter Miami boasts arguably the greatest player of all time, they are highly unlikely to overcome potential opponents like Paris Saint-Germain, possibly Bayern Munich, perhaps Real Madrid, and then Manchester City. Their path seems blocked by giants.
