Club World Cup: Qualification Scenarios for the Round of 16

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Over the next week, the FIFA Club World Cup group stage concludes across the U.S., narrowing the field from 32 teams to 16 and setting the stage for the knockout rounds beginning Saturday.

As anticipated, the Round of 16 will likely be dominated by teams from Europe and South America, although the tournament hasn`t been without its surprises. South American teams have collectively suffered only one defeat so far. Flamengo is among the few teams that have already secured their place in the next round with a match remaining, following victories over Esperance de Tunis and Chelsea.

Notably, Inter Miami is well-positioned to be the sole team outside of Europe and South America to reach the last 16, thanks to their unexpected 2-1 win against Porto. However, many teams favored to advance have not yet confirmed their qualification, leading to potentially dramatic final group stage matches.

Club World Cup Tiebreaker Rules

If teams are level on points in the group stage, ties are broken using the following criteria:

  1. Group stage points
  2. Head-to-head record in matches between the tied teams
  3. Goal difference in matches between the tied teams
  4. Goals scored in matches between the tied teams
  5. Overall group stage goal difference
  6. Overall group stage goals scored
  7. Disciplinary points (based on yellow and red cards)
  8. Drawing of lots

Group Stage Scenarios

Group A scenarios

Palmeiras advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win or draw against Inter Miami
  • A loss to Inter Miami AND Al Ahly wins against Porto OR Porto wins against Al Ahly AND Palmeiras wins on goal difference against Porto

Inter Miami advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win or draw against Palmeiras
  • A loss to Palmeiras AND Porto wins against Al Ahly OR Inter Miami wins on goal difference against Al Ahly

Porto advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win against Al Ahly AND Palmeiras loss to Inter Miami AND Porto wins on goal difference against Palmeiras

Al Ahly advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win against Porto AND Inter Miami loss to Palmeiras AND Al Ahly wins on goal difference against Inter Miami

Group B scenarios

Botafogo advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win or draw against Atletico Madrid
  • A loss to Atletico Madrid AND Paris Saint-Germain loss to Seattle Sounders

Paris Saint-Germain advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win against Seattle Sounders
  • A draw against Seattle Sounders AND Botafogo wins or draws against Atletico Madrid
  • A loss to Seattle Sounders AND Botafogo wins against Atletico Madrid AND tiebreakers favor Paris Saint-Germain

Atletico Madrid advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win against Botafogo AND Paris Saint-Germain draws or loses against Seattle Sounders
  • A draw against Botafogo AND Paris Saint-Germain loss to Seattle Sounders

Seattle Sounders advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win against Paris Saint-Germain by three or more goals AND Atletico Madrid loss to Botafogo

Group C scenarios

Bayern Munich: Qualified for the round of 16

Benfica advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win or draw against Bayern Munich
  • A loss to Bayern Munich AND Boca Juniors draws or loses against Auckland City

Boca Juniors advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win against Auckland City AND Benfica loss to Bayern Munich AND Boca Juniors wins on goal difference against Benfica

Auckland City: Eliminated from the competition

Group D scenarios

Flamengo: Qualified for the round of 16

Chelsea advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win or draw against Esperance de Tunis

Esperance de Tunis advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win against Chelsea

LAFC: Eliminated from the competition

Group E scenarios

River Plate advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win against Inter
  • A draw against Inter AND Monterrey draws or loses against Urawa Red Diamonds

Inter advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win or draw against River Plate
  • A loss to River Plate AND Monterrey draws or loses against Urawa Red Diamonds

Monterrey advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win against Urawa Red Diamonds AND River Plate loss to Inter OR Inter loss to River Plate OR a goalless draw between River Plate and Inter

Urawa Red Diamonds: Eliminated from the competition

Group F scenarios

Fluminense advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win or draw against Mamelodi Sundowns
  • A loss to Mamelodi Sundowns AND Borussia Dortmund loss to Ulsan HD by the same or a larger margin than Fluminense`s loss

Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win or draw against Ulsan HD
  • A loss to Ulsan HD AND Fluminense wins or draws against Mamelodi Sundowns

Mamelodi Sundowns advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win against Fluminense AND Borussia Dortmund loss to Ulsan HD

Ulsan HD: Eliminated from the competition

Group G scenarios

Juventus: Qualified for round of 16

Manchester City: Qualified for round of 16

Wydad Casablanca: Eliminated from the competition

Al-Ain: Eliminated from the competition

Group H scenarios

Real Madrid advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win or draw against RB Salzburg
  • A loss to RB Salzburg AND Al-Hilal draws or loses against Pachuca

RB Salzburg advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win or draw against Real Madrid
  • A loss to Real Madrid AND Al-Hilal loss to Pachuca

Al-Hilal advance to the round of 16 with:

  • A win against Pachuca AND Real Madrid loss to RB Salzburg OR RB Salzburg loss to Real Madrid

Pachuca: Eliminated from the competition

Heath Buttersworth
Heath Buttersworth

Heath Buttersworth is a seasoned sports journalist based in Bristol, England. Since 2012, he has been covering various sports, particularly focusing on Formula 1 and UFC events.

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