The European club football season has concluded. Aside from the often-overlooked Club World Cup, players have done all they can to stake their claim for the Ballon d`Or. The winner will be announced on September 22, leaving ample time between now and then for discussion and debate.
Engaging in this debate is enjoyable. While the most significant accolades in team sports are those achieved collectively, evaluating the best individual player in a season is a worthwhile exercise.
This year`s race for the award promises to be particularly fascinating, unlike the era dominated by Lionel Messi where the winner often felt certain. Early in 2025, Mohamed Salah`s exceptional form suggested he might be the clear frontrunner. However, few could have predicted Paris Saint-Germain`s dramatic improvement, transforming them from Champions League contenders into Europe`s premier team, making their key attacker, Ousmane Dembele, the strong favourite to claim the award.
Our aim here isn`t to predict the eventual Ballon d`Or winner – the betting odds provide insight into that. Instead, we`ll discuss who *should* win. The primary factor is performance output. Since scoring and creating goals are the most impactful actions in football, these contributions are heavily weighted. While defensive performance is also crucial, the exceptional offensive output this season suggests the winner is unlikely to be a defender like Fabio Cannavaro.
Without getting bogged down in the debate about trophies (`rings`), it`s clear that contributions like goals, assists, and clean sheets are essential for team success and winning major titles. The Ballon d`Or criteria explicitly consider a player`s impact on `team performances and achievements`. The final decision involves balancing team success, individual brilliance, and the `class and fair play` criterion – a process that involves subjective judgment but should still be informed by objective analysis.
At this point in the season, raw statistical output is the most significant factor. While early in a season, metrics like xG or per 90 stats hint at future potential for candidates (e.g., for 2026), for the 2025 award, we have a comprehensive view of player performance. Here`s our ranking of the contenders based on their season`s output.
- Ballon d`Or 2025 Power Rankings
- 1. Mohamed Salah, Liverpool (+900)
- 2. Raphinha, Barcelona (+1000)
- 3. Ousmane Dembele, PSG (-200)
- 4. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, PSG (+1600)
- 5. Pedri, Barcelona (+3300)
- 6. Lamine Yamal, Barcelona (+275)
- 7. Achraf Hakimi, PSG (+5000)
- 8. Kylian Mbappe, Real Madrid (+3300)
- 9. Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool (+10000)
- 10. Harry Kane, Bayern Munich (+10000)
Ballon d`Or 2025 Power Rankings
1. Mohamed Salah, Liverpool (+900)
Before this season, only two players in Premier League history had recorded 47 goal involvements in a single campaign, both needing 42 games to do so. Salah achieved this remarkable feat in fewer matches, easing off slightly towards the end of the season yet still finishing with an incredible 34 goals and 23 assists across all competitions. Liverpool`s early exit from the Champions League should not diminish his individual performance, especially considering he spearheaded an underdog Liverpool side to comfortably win Europe`s most competitive domestic league.
2. Raphinha, Barcelona (+1000)
What a remarkable turnaround this represents. At the season`s start, Barcelona`s hierarchy reportedly sought to offload Raphinha. Nine months later, he emerged as the key player in their title-winning campaign. The Brazilian was equally impressive in the Champions League, matching Cristiano Ronaldo`s record for goal contributions with 21. Had Barcelona won the Champions League, his contribution likely would have propelled him to the top spot on this list.
3. Ousmane Dembele, PSG (-200)
The argument for Dembele is compellingly simple. His development into one of the world`s elite centre forwards was arguably the most crucial factor in transforming PSG into a team capable of winning the Champions League. He was outstanding leading the attack, delivering some of his finest performances in the season`s biggest matches. The only reservation is that the two players ranked above him sustained their elite output over the entire year in arguably more challenging domestic leagues.
4. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, PSG (+1600)
The top three players likely constitute a separate tier. From this point onwards, we are ranking players who are brilliant but perhaps not quite at the level required to win the Ballon d`Or this season. Kvaratskhelia certainly fits this description, being another significant mid-season catalyst in PSG`s transformation into a superteam. While his raw goal and assist numbers may not match those above him, Kvaratskhelia excels at creating scoring opportunities for his team with flair and effectiveness.
5. Pedri, Barcelona (+3300)
Widely regarded as the season`s standout midfielder, a sentiment echoed by others. Toni Kroos recently stated, “A player like Pedri is more important than Lamine Yamal, Raphinha or Lewandowski,” adding that he considered him “the best in the world in his position.” The 22-year-old`s ball progression statistics were excellent as expected, but many were pleasantly surprised by his strong commitment and effectiveness in tackling and interceptions.
6. Lamine Yamal, Barcelona (+275)
In terms of pure statistical output, Yamal`s 39 goal involvements place him just behind the top three. This is an absolutely phenomenal achievement for any player, let alone a 17-year-old. His standing among the favourites is significantly boosted by the powerful narrative surrounding his performances in major matches like the Champions League semi-finals. Based on his current trajectory, it seems only a matter of time before he joins the elite group of Ballon d`Or contenders.
7. Achraf Hakimi, PSG (+5000)
Several PSG players merit consideration for a top 10 spot, but Hakimi gets the nod for two key reasons. Firstly, his dynamic contributions both offensively and defensively perfectly embody the qualities of Luis Enrique`s team. Secondly, his crucial goals in the Champions League quarter-finals, semi-finals, and final add significant weight to his case. Such impactful moments count for a lot in these evaluations.
8. Kylian Mbappe, Real Madrid (+3300)
One could argue that Mbappe`s presence destabilized Real Madrid enough to potentially disqualify him from serious Ballon d`Or contention. Conversely, the team`s struggles were not solely due to integrating a new signing; they were also significantly impacted by defensive injuries. Real Madrid might have faced even greater difficulties without Mbappe`s contribution of 42 goals across the season.
9. Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool (+10000)
Van Dijk has been nothing short of exceptional throughout this season. Whatever slight loss of pace he may have experienced has been more than compensated for by the continued development of his skills on the ball and his unparalleled defensive intelligence over recent years.
10. Harry Kane, Bayern Munich (+10000)
This case is relatively straightforward. Kane ranks second among players in Europe`s top five leagues for goal contributions, achieving this in nearly 1,000 fewer minutes played than Mohamed Salah. Even at the age of 31, he continues to deliver league-leading scoring figures and top 10 assist numbers, now complemented by winning trophies with Bayern Munich.
